Tarique Rahman’s Return and Its Implications for Bangladesh

A Historic Homecoming

On December 25, 2025, Dhaka became a stage for a remarkable political comeback as Tarique Rahman, acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), returned after 17 years in self-imposed exile in the UK. His landing at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport was met with exuberant crowds—tens of thousands of supporters passionately welcoming him back. Rahman expressed his vision for a safe Bangladesh, emphasizing unity among its diverse population, including Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, and Christians. His pronouncement, “We want peace,” resonated deeply at a time rife with political tension.

Timely Arrival Amidst Political Turmoil

Rahman’s return comes against a backdrop of escalating violence, including the recent assassination of youth leader Osman Hadi and the arson attacks on the offices of leading newspapers. With national elections scheduled for February 2026, the BNP is perceived as a strong contender. Analysts believe that Rahman’s presence could provide much-needed stability and clarity in a politically precarious environment. According to Asif Mohammad Shahan, a professor at the University of Dhaka, his homecoming opens a “new window of opportunity” for the party, easing uncertainties surrounding the upcoming elections.

The Unfolding Power Dynamics

Despite facing numerous obstacles, including a history of convictions and a turbulent political landscape, Rahman has managed to maintain control over the BNP. He strategically timed his return, just as his mother, Khaleda Zia, the party’s icon and former Prime Minister, battles serious health issues. The recent political climate has been tumultuous, marked by mass protests and a government perceived as ineffective. Rahman’s return provides a potential catalyst for the BNP to re-establish itself, especially as former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League was ousted following widespread unrest.

The Public Response

Rahman’s return rallies support from not only traditional BNP voters but also from the broader community. This widespread excitement suggests that many view him as a symbol of hope amidst chaos. The focal point of his campaign revolves around stability and effective governance, narrowly framing his political identity as one capable of bridging divides among the populace.

Challenging Expectations

As analysts assess Rahman’s capabilities, the question of governance weighs heavily. His past has been marred by accusations ranging from corruption to serious crimes; however, a shift in public mood may work in his favor, as many feel that he was unjustly treated during his exile. The political narrative may shift in Rahman’s favor if he aligns his vision with the public’s aspirations for stability and reform. His ability to deliver a clear, reassuring message could either consolidate his gains or plunge the country back into uncertainty.

Navigating Relations with India

One critical aspect of Rahman’s agenda will be his relationship with India, historically a point of contention for the BNP. Given the party’s traditional ties to the Jamaat-e-Islami, relations with India have been complex. However, Rahman appears to be repositioning the BNP as a centrist party, distancing itself from the Jamaat and trying to appeal to voters disillusioned with the Awami League. Despite focusing on a “Bangladesh First” mantra, many anticipate that he will pursue a more moderate stance in foreign policy, making it easier for India to engage.

Energizing the Party Base

As the February elections loom, recent surveys indicate a competitive political landscape, with the BNP and Jamaat polling closely together. The energy surrounding Rahman’s return is expected to galvanize not only the party base but also undecided voters. Political observers note that if Rahman can connect with the populace and articulate a coherent plan for governance, this could herald significant political change.

The Road Ahead

Rahman’s strategy will likely involve reassurances aimed at citizens concerned about safety and governance amid rising violence. As he attempts to articulate his vision, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Questions linger over his ability to lead the BNP effectively and navigate the complex political terrain that awaits in the run-up to the elections. Analysts and citizens alike are keenly watching how the events of these next few months unfold.